Ideas
Not new.
Basically ever.
Most of what gets called a revolution in finance is an old playbook with new branding. These are the arguments I keep making, and where I've made them.
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Fix the rules from inside the room
Forex was branded a scam before it was regulated, and crypto followed the same path. Shouting at regulators changes nothing. Change has to start from the inside, with builders at the table when the rules get written. London keynote, 2018
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Access is the real innovation
Most of what crypto builds mirrors what finance already has. The real difference is who gets let in. Shutting people out because they supposedly can't understand the risk doesn't remove risk; it creates new risk. Bitcoin Amsterdam, 2022
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Know how the machine actually works
Volume isn't liquidity, and headline numbers mislead: even the “most liquid market in the world” isn't that liquid for a retail trader. When a venue goes dark in a crash, it's because one side of the market has disappeared. AIBC Dubai, 2021
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Human nature is the hardest market
Trading runs against human nature. Nobody reliably calls tops or bottoms, and fear and greed are the hardest part of any market. Discipline matters more than prediction. KD Launch podcast, 2022
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Hype fades, utility stays
Every bubble has a real use case underneath it, but the first people in are mostly there to grab money. Ask the boring question first: does this actually need a token? Usually, no. Coinstruct podcast, 2021
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Stay in the game
Most things fail, so fail fast. Pivoting is not giving up, and greed is just another word for bad risk management. Staying in the game is what earns you the next chance. Eavesdrop, 2026
In my words
Things I've said out loud
From conference stages and from Eavesdrop, where the mic stays on after the meeting's supposedly over.
Decisions affect other people. They always do. But indecision affects everybody.
I never give up, and pivoting is not giving up.
Liquidity and volume are not the same thing.
Barring someone from investing in something because you think they're not smart enough to understand the risk actually induces risk.
You should never be married to an idea.
The market's kind of like a rubber band: when you pull it real fast and real hard, it comes back real fast and real hard.
Everything decentralized is still centralized to the point of failure, because the point of failure is the grid.
It's literally against human nature to become a good trader.
Having a business is worse than having a job until it's not.
Nothing's anonymous. It's pseudo anonymous at best.
The big difference is access.
Lots of narratives are created by a minority and the minority thinks the majority believes the same narrative.
Lately on Eavesdrop
This season's rabbit holes
- AI slop
- Skill atrophy
- Agentic money
- DeFi & traceability
- Energy wars
- Compute quotas
- Bankers' wars
- CBDCs
- FATF grey lists
- Tech bros vs bankers
- Own nothing, be happy